Conflict in the Middle East is likely to push up food prices in the UK within weeks, a trade union chief has warned.
Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers Union (NFU), said the entire food supply chain could be affected by war, and prices of some crops would increase within six weeks.
Rising fuel and fertilizer prices are one of the impacts of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which holds around 20 percent of the world’s natural gas.
Bradshaw warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would have a ‘dramatic impact’ and upend world supply chains.
He told BBC Radio 4 that prices of tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers could increase next month, as these crops depend on greenhouse production.
Prices of other goods such as milk and meat could rise within three to six months.
Wheat and barley farmers will be better protected if they buy fertilizer in advance.
Ministers will hold an emergency meeting to discuss the impact of the war on the cost of living.
The NFU chief added that the government needed to take threats to food production ‘seriously’.
He said: ‘Amid these volatile conditions, it is vital that the government minimizes other inflationary pressures within its control to protect households.’
While retailers and farmers may bear some of the impact of fuel increases, some of the burden will likely be borne by consumers, the NFU warned.
The availability of some goods could also be impacted by disruption to delivery routes, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said.
He added that retailers are seeking to reduce costs for consumers and are ‘adept’ at managing disruptions to the supply chain.
Angela Eagle, Minister of Agriculture, said she was monitoring the impact of the conflict on the industry.
There are also concerns about the price of red diesel, for which the Competition and Markets Authority has committed to monitoring prices.
Prolonged conflict could also threaten several other sectors, including travel.
Airline officials have warned that fares could be raised if the war drags on.
Although most airlines have ‘hedged’ or locked in fuel costs during the summer months, passengers could feel the pinch afterward if the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded.
Britain is particularly vulnerable because it imports up to 90 percent of its jet fuel.
EasyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis said although there were no ‘immediate issues’, the airline was dependent on refineries in the Gulf.
The low-cost carrier will not introduce fuel surcharges, but passengers will likely experience a gradual increase in ‘supply and demand’.
He told the Independent’s Simon Calder: ‘My forecast is prices will rise.
“The industry has no choice. It’s a low-margin sector and very competitive. We make around £7 a seat. If fuel goes up by £10, you have to respond.”
Contact our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
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