How will Arsenal’s defense perform without Gabriel?

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Arsenal star Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.6m) has not been officially ruled out of Gameweek 12 of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) but all signs point to the Brazilian centre-back’s ax.

If he misses the north London derby and potentially the rest of this calendar year, FPL bosses may have no choice but to sell the most expensive and widely owned defensive asset in football.

But for those who have more than one of Arsenal’s impressive back line players in their squad, or for managers considering a move for another Gunner, we thought it would be useful to see how Arteta’s squad performs with and without such a key player in the team.

To try and determine this, we’ll take a brief look at the Gunners’ performances with Gabriel this season, followed by their games in which he was involved and where he was not (due to two separate injuries) during the 2024/25 season.

If you want to jump to the with/without comparison, click here!

FPL 2025/26: With Gabriel

Having played 90 minutes in all 11 of Arsenal’s Premier League games so far this season, Gabriel has also started four (and finished two) of the Gunners’ four flawless Champions League games to date.

He ranks first in Arteta’s squad for blocks, clearances, aerial duels and total defensive contribution (DefCon):

With him an ever-present figure in the starting XI, the Gunners’ league-leading defensive stats as a team include: fewest shots conceded (81), shots inside the box (23), shots on target (21), attempts from set pieces (24), Opta-designated ‘big chances’ (8, half the next smallest tally), key passes through midfield (18) and errors leading to goals (0).

So it is not surprising that Mikel Arteta’s team has the lowest estimated goals conceded (xGC) so far:

Throughout Matchweek 11, Arsenal also conceded the fewest goals (5) and kept the most clean sheets (7) of any Premier League club.

But what about last season?

FPL 2024/25: With Gabriel (Matchweeks 1-13, 16-30)

In the 2024/25 Premier League, Gabriel started every game between Matchweeks 1-13, finishing all but two of them.

One of the games in which he was substituted early was the 2–2 draw at home to Liverpool, with the hosts conceding a late equalizer when Jakub Kiwior made emergency defense and Ben White (£5.3m) was thwarted by a counter-attack.

The other, a 5-2 win at West Ham United, saw all seven goals come in a tumultuous first half in which Gabriel scored once, provided an assist and then came off at half-time with a knee injury that would see him miss the next two league games.

Considering the number of goals in Gameweek 13 at the London Stadium, let’s take a look at Arsenal’s defensive statistics through Gameweek 12 of last season.

Arsenal’s early season defensive display with Gabriel

		Total shots conceded (league ranking)	Shots conceded on target (league ranking)	Opta big chance of conceding (league ranking)	Goals conceded (league ranking)	Clean sheet (league ranking)
2024/25 (GW1-12)		158 (10th most)	46 (T=4)	20 (third)	12 (second)	4 (third)
Average per gw		13.2	3.8	1.7

*rank = least, unless otherwise stated

Now for a slightly larger sample size.

Recovering from his knee problem, Gabriel went on to start and finish every Premier League game between FPL Matchweek 16 and 29 last season, before he was withdrawn with a season-ending hamstring injury a quarter of an hour into Matchweek 30, with Fulham’s late consolation goal of the day coming after he had come off the pitch.

Arsenal’s mid-season defensive display with Gabriel

	Total shots conceded (league ranking)	Shots conceded on target (league ranking)	Opta big chance of conceding (league ranking)	Goals conceded (league ranking)	Clean sheet (league ranking)
2024/25: Matchweeks 16-29	105 (first)	40 (1)	16 (1)	9 (1)	6 (T=2)
Average per gw	7.5	2.9	1.1

*rank = least, unless otherwise stated

As you can see above, the Gunners showed improvement in their overall defensive stats as a team from the first to second third of the season.

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Adding those two time periods together (minus the two games in which Gabriel was substituted previously, in Gameweeks 13 and 30), we get the following total and average statistics per Gameweek spread across his 26 appearances:

Arsenal’s overall defensive performance in the 2024/25 season with Gabriel

	Total shots conceded	Shot on target conceded	Big chance for Opta to concede	Goal conceded	Clean sheets
With Gabriel…	263	86	36	21	10
Average per gw	10	3.3	1.4

All of this illustrates what we already know: Arsenal is a pretty good team with Gabriel!

Time for the important question, then…

FPL 2024/25: Without Gabriel (Match Week 14-15, 31-38)

One way to assess how the Gunners will fare in Gabriel’s immediate absence is to look at how they fared last season in his absence.

As we already mentioned, the Brazilian was absent at two different times…

Short absence (Matchweek 14-15)

There’s not much to take away from a two-game window in isolation, but the Gunners managed to keep a clean sheet at home against a rather woeful Manchester United Utd in the first game Gabriel missed last season.

In the second set, his replacement Kiwior fell behind when Fulham scored an early opener which ended in a 1-1 draw. Interestingly, William Lintasa (£6.0m) – Gabriel’s potential replacement in FPL again now – scored in both games.

Game week 31-38

Instead, the north London side’s home ground in 2024/25 may offer a better glimpse of life without Gabriel.

In the Premier League, that means eight games, in which Arsenal won three, drew four and lost one (at home to Bournemouth).

They conceded nine goals in that time, more than any other six clubs, and kept just two clean sheets, with seven teams achieving more shutouts.

Arsenal’s overall defensive performance for the 2024/25 season without Gabriel

	Total shots conceded (league ranking)	Shots conceded on target (league ranking)	Opta big chance of conceding (league ranking)	Goals conceded (league ranking)	Clean sheet (league ranking)
2024/25 Guards 31-38	71 (2)	22 (third)	18 (=9)	9	2
2024/25 Guards 14-15	7	4	0	1	1
Without Jibril… (total)	78	26	18	10	3
Average per gw(10 games)	7.8	2.6	1.8	1.0	0.3

*rank = least, unless otherwise stated

With Gabriel v Without Gabriel

To combine all those numbers into one table…

Arsenal’s defensive performance for the 2024/25 season with and without Gabriel

	Total shots conceded	Shot on target conceded	Big chance for Opta to concede	Goal conceded	Clean sheets
With Gabriel… (total)	263	86	36	21	10
Average per gw (26 games)	10	3.3	1.4	0.8	0.4
Without Jibril… (total)	78	26	18	10	3
Average per gw(10 games)	7.8	2.6	1.8	1.0	0.3

So (albeit a smaller sample size), Arsenal actually conceded fewer shots and shots on target without Gabriel than with him.

However, they concede ‘big chances’ and goals at a higher rate per 90 minutes and also keep clean sheets at a lower rate.

Adding back the two games we’ve omitted from our statistical analysis due to Gabriel’s early withdrawal (which, as a reminder, Arsenal won both) leaves the team’s league record last season with and without him as follows:

• Arsenal 2024/25 record with Gabriel: P28, W16, D9, L3
• Arsenal’s 2024/25 record without Gabriel: P10, W4, D5, L1

Therefore, Arteta’s group only lost once in Gabriel’s absence in the Premier League last season, but their defense looked less than solid.

In the two games immediately following Gabriel’s hamstring injury, the Gunners twice lost the lead shortly after scoring to draw 1-1 against Everton and Brentford.

After getting past relegated Ipswich Town, they then had a three-game run featuring a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace, a 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth, and a second 2-2 draw with Liverpool.

Better quality replacement this time?

“It just flowed,” Arteta previously described Gabriel’s central defensive partnership with Saliba. So, who can replace him?

Last season’s representative, Kiwior, was loaned to Porto during the summer transfer window, but Arteta has also added some new additions to his squad in the form of Christian Mosque (£5.4 million) and Piero Hincapie (£5.4 million)

Hincapie may be Arteta’s most preferred replacement for Gabriel, an aggressive left-footed defender described by the Arsenal boss as a “warrior”. A groin injury early in the season has limited him to just two starts, both in the cup.

Fellow summer arrival Mosquera has more experience under Arteta. He was introduced early when Lintasa went down with an injury at Anfield and then started in the 3-0 win over Forest two weeks later. He has served as a substitute in the Premier League since then, but has finished both of his new club’s Carabao Cup games to date and has appeared in three Champions League games, one as a starter.

One caveat against Mosquera: he is right-footed and has only played at right centre-back for Arsenal (including starting alongside Lintasa against Port Vale). However, he did appear as a left back for Valencia, so he could be trusted to do so again.

Another option is to move Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) for a centre-back and use Hincapie or Myles Lewis-Skelly (£5.1m) at left-back, but with the Gunners having been so successful with Calafiori tending to attack on the wing, this is perhaps the least attractive option.

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Whoever gets the nod, the main takeaway here is that all of the above names appear to be upgrades over the Kiwiors. Arteta and Arsenal’s board appear to have learned from previous years, assembling a bloated and fit squad to overcome injuries in the summer. every position.

Hincapie and Mosquera lacked the years of experience and understanding with Lintasa. But both have looked quite impressive in the game time they have received, with Mosquera’s outstanding performance against an elite side (Liverpool) instilling confidence that Gabriel may not be missed as much as he will be in the 2024/25 season.

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